TBR vs BOS
SP Brayan Bello vs Freddy Peralta
Final: BOS 1 - 2 TBR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (4.4pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.7pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Red Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Rays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Red Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Red Sox has the edge in Elo (0.2pp). Red Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Red Sox ahead by 19pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (4.4pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -4.4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -0.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.7pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -3.7pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Red Sox @ Rays · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 10h before game time