MLB AI Track Record
A transparent look at how accurate MoneyBall Score AI is on MLB games — based on every verified game this season.
Verified
748
748 games
Overall accuracy
52.4%
392/748
Brier Score
0.250
Calibration gap
+3.2%p
Overconfident
Confidence vs Actual Accuracy
When the AI says 60% confidence, does it actually win 60% of the time? Closer to the diagonal = better calibrated.
Accuracy by AI Confidence
Low confidence
~55%
—
Medium confidence
55~65%
52%
392/748
High confidence
65%~
—
Team Prediction Performance
Counted for any team involved in the game, home or away.
| Team | Games | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 52 | 31 | 59.6% |
| Padres | 52 | 35 | 67.3% |
| Cardinals | 52 | 24 | 46.2% |
| Rays | 52 | 27 | 51.9% |
| Diamondbacks | 51 | 25 | 49.0% |
| Red Sox | 51 | 24 | 47.1% |
| Mets | 51 | 21 | 41.2% |
| Athletics | 50 | 24 | 48.0% |
| Braves | 50 | 32 | 64.0% |
| Royals | 50 | 33 | 66.0% |
| Yankees | 50 | 23 | 46.0% |
| Phillies | 50 | 25 | 50.0% |
| Pirates | 50 | 27 | 54.0% |
| Rangers | 50 | 27 | 54.0% |
| Blue Jays | 50 | 22 | 44.0% |
| Nationals | 50 | 25 | 50.0% |
| Cubs | 49 | 21 | 42.9% |
| Reds | 49 | 24 | 49.0% |
| Guardians | 49 | 24 | 49.0% |
| Rockies | 49 | 29 | 59.2% |
| White Sox | 49 | 27 | 55.1% |
| Tigers | 49 | 20 | 40.8% |
| Astros | 49 | 24 | 49.0% |
| Angels | 49 | 27 | 55.1% |
| Dodgers | 49 | 24 | 49.0% |
| Marlins | 49 | 30 | 61.2% |
| Twins | 49 | 25 | 51.0% |
| Giants | 49 | 31 | 63.3% |
| Mariners | 48 | 30 | 62.5% |
| Orioles | 47 | 23 | 48.9% |
| AL | 1 | 0 | (small sample) |
| NL | 1 | 0 | (small sample) |