MLB Retrospective: Missed Predictions
We don't hide the high-confidence predictions our MLB model got wrong. MLB doesn't yet have a post-hoc judge agent like KBO, so instead of a narrative diagnosis, we show a quantitative breakdown of which factors most strongly backed the (wrong) predicted direction.
2026-08-19
Diamondbacks7 : 6Red Sox
Predicted Red Sox (74%) → Actual winner Diamondbacks
Factors that backed this prediction
- WAR
- Starter xFIP
- Starter FIP
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2026-08-14
Rockies5 : 2Giants
Predicted Giants (71%) → Actual winner Rockies
Factors that backed this prediction
- WAR
- Starter FIP
- Bullpen FIP
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2026-08-16
Rockies13 : 7Giants
Predicted Giants (70%) → Actual winner Rockies
Factors that backed this prediction
- WAR
- Starter FIP
- Bullpen FIP
→ View game details
2026-08-19
Nationals6 : 0Rangers
Predicted Rangers (68%) → Actual winner Nationals
Factors that backed this prediction
- Starter FIP
- Bullpen FIP
- Starter xFIP
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2026-08-14
Mariners7 : 10Astros
Predicted Mariners (66%) → Actual winner Astros
Factors that backed this prediction
- Starter FIP
- Bullpen FIP
- Starter xFIP
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2026-08-14
Rangers3 : 8Athletics
Predicted Rangers (66%) → Actual winner Athletics
Factors that backed this prediction
- WAR
- Starter FIP
- Bullpen FIP
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2026-08-16
Rangers2 : 5Athletics
Predicted Rangers (65%) → Actual winner Athletics
Factors that backed this prediction
- WAR
- Starter FIP
- Bullpen FIP
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2026-08-15
White Sox4 : 3Tigers
Predicted Tigers (65%) → Actual winner White Sox
Factors that backed this prediction
- Starter FIP
- Bullpen FIP
- Starter xFIP
→ View game details
2026-08-16
Royals3 : 0Angels
Predicted Angels (65%) → Actual winner Royals
Factors that backed this prediction
- Starter FIP
- Bullpen FIP
- Starter xFIP
→ View game details
2026-08-14
Royals7 : 6Angels
Predicted Angels (65%) → Actual winner Royals
Factors that backed this prediction
- Starter FIP
- Bullpen FIP
- Starter xFIP
→ View game details