BOS vs TBR
Final: TBR 6 - 7 BOS
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (4.4pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.7pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Red Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Red Sox has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Red Sox ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 3.66 / 4.03
- SP xFIP
- 3.79 / 3.99
- Bullpen FIP
- 3.66 / 4.03
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.317 / 0.324
- WAR
- 15.32 / 18.53
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.311 / 0.307
- Barrel%
- 7.3 / 5.8
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Red Sox win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Rays @ Red Sox · final [15%, 85%] clamp