CHC vs MIL
SP Logan Henderson vs Kevin Gausman
Final: MIL 1 - 2 CHC
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (12.4pp). Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp). Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (10.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Cubs has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Brewers has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Cubs has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.3pp). Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Cubs has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Brewers ahead by 62pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (12.4pp).
Brewers edge · contribution -12.4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp).
Brewers edge · contribution -1.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (10.3pp).
Brewers edge · contribution -10.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cubs win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Brewers @ Cubs · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time