CHC vs MIL

SP Robert Gasser vs Matthew Boyd

Brewers 85%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (13.6pp). Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.6pp). Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (11.3pp).

Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (0.9pp).

Situational — Cubs has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Brewers has the edge in Recent Form (20pp). Cubs has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Cubs has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Brewers ahead by 70pp.

Factor BalanceBrewers favoredFactors 3:1(Bullpen FIP·SP FIP·SP xFIP)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Brewers 3.57vsCubs 4.70

Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (13.6pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -13.6pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Brewers 3.69vsCubs 4.22

Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.6pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -1.6pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Brewers 3.57vsCubs 4.70

Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (11.3pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -11.3pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Brewers 0.325vsCubs 0.337

Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +0.6pp

WAR

weight 8%

Brewers 20.7vsCubs 32.3

Cubs has the edge in WAR (0.9pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +0.9pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Brewers 70.0%vsCubs 30.0%

Brewers has the edge in Recent Form (20pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -20pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Brewers 33%vsCubs 67%

Cubs has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +0.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Brewers 0.322vsCubs 0.322

Negligible gap in Lineup xwOBA.

Even

Barrel%

weight 3%

Brewers 7.5%vsCubs 7.4%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Brewers 1516vsCubs 1533

Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +0.4pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cubs win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Brewers @ Cubs · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Brewers vs Cubs)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-06-28Cubs @ Brewers4-3

Predicted:MIL→Actual CHCWrong

2026-06-27Cubs @ Brewers8-2

Predicted:MIL→Actual CHCWrong

2026-06-26Cubs @ Brewers2-6

Predicted:MIL→Actual MILCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time