CHC vs MIL

SP Jacob Misiorowski vs David Peterson

Brewers 75%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (12.1pp). Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp). Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (10.1pp).

Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Cubs has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Brewers has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Cubs has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.8pp). Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Cubs has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Brewers ahead by 50pp.

Factor BalanceBrewers favoredFactors 2:1(Bullpen FIP·SP FIP)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Brewers 3.68vsCubs 4.69

Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (12.1pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -12.1pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Brewers 3.72vsCubs 4.20

Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -1.4pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Brewers 3.68vsCubs 4.69

Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (10.1pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -10.1pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Brewers 0.325vsCubs 0.340

Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +0.8pp

WAR

weight 8%

Brewers 20.8vsCubs 33.8

Cubs has the edge in WAR (1pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +1pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Brewers 60.0%vsCubs 40.0%

Brewers has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -10pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Brewers 25%vsCubs 75%

Cubs has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.8pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +0.8pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Brewers 0.321vsCubs 0.324

Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Brewers 7.5%vsCubs 7.5%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Brewers 1516vsCubs 1533

Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +0.4pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cubs win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Brewers @ Cubs · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Brewers vs Cubs)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-31Brewers @ Cubs3-17

Predicted:MIL→Actual CHCWrong

2026-06-28Cubs @ Brewers4-3

Predicted:MIL→Actual CHCWrong

2026-06-27Cubs @ Brewers8-2

Predicted:MIL→Actual CHCWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time