TBR vs SDP
SP Robbie Ray vs Drew Rasmussen
Final: SDP 4 - 5 TBR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Rays has the edge in SP FIP (1.3pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp). Padres has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Rays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rays has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Rays has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Padres has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Rays ahead by 22pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Rays has the edge in SP FIP (1.3pp).
Rays edge · contribution +1.3pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp).
Rays edge · contribution +0.8pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.1pp).
Rays edge · contribution +1.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).
Rays edge
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Padres @ Rays · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time