TBR vs SDP

SP Robbie Ray vs Drew Rasmussen

Rays 61%

Final: SDP 4 - 5 TBR

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Rays has the edge in SP FIP (1.3pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.1pp).

Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp). Padres has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Rays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rays has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Rays has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Padres has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Rays ahead by 22pp.

Factor BalancePadres favoredFactors 1:0(PF)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Padres 4.16vsRays 4.05

Rays has the edge in SP FIP (1.3pp).

Rays edge · contribution +1.3pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Padres 4.23vsRays 3.96

Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp).

Rays edge · contribution +0.8pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Padres 4.16vsRays 4.05

Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.1pp).

Rays edge · contribution +1.1pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Padres 0.310vsRays 0.322

Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).

Rays edge · contribution +0.6pp

WAR

weight 8%

Padres 16.0vsRays 19.5

Rays has the edge in WAR (0.3pp).

Rays edge · contribution +0.3pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Padres 50.0%vsRays 50.0%

Negligible gap in Recent Form.

Even

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Padres 0%vsRays 100%

Rays has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Rays edge · contribution +1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Padres 0.318vsRays 0.306

Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).

Padres edge · contribution -0.3pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Padres 8.1%vsRays 5.7%

Padres has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Padres edge · contribution -0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Padres 1510vsRays 1525

Rays has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Rays edge · contribution +0.4pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Padres @ Rays · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Padres vs Rays)

Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-29Padres @ Rays6-7

Predicted:TBR→Actual TBRCorrect

2026-08-28Padres @ Rays4-9

Predicted:TBR→Actual TBRCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time