TBR vs SDP

SP Walker Buehler vs Nick Martinez

Rays 54%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Rays has the edge in SP FIP (1.1pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.9pp).

Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp). Padres has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Rays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Padres has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Rays has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Padres has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Rays ahead by 8pp.

Factor BalancePadres favoredFactors 1:0(PF)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Padres 4.14vsRays 4.05

Rays has the edge in SP FIP (1.1pp).

Rays edge · contribution +1.1pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Padres 4.22vsRays 3.96

Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp).

Rays edge · contribution +0.8pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Padres 4.14vsRays 4.05

Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.9pp).

Rays edge · contribution +0.9pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Padres 0.311vsRays 0.322

Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).

Rays edge · contribution +0.6pp

WAR

weight 8%

Padres 16.3vsRays 18.9

Rays has the edge in WAR (0.2pp).

Rays edge · contribution +0.2pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Padres 60.0%vsRays 50.0%

Padres has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).

Padres edge · contribution -5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Padres 0.318vsRays 0.306

Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).

Padres edge · contribution -0.3pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Padres 8.1%vsRays 5.7%

Padres has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Padres edge · contribution -0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Padres 1510vsRays 1525

Rays has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Rays edge · contribution +0.4pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Padres @ Rays · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Padres vs Rays)

Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-28Padres @ Rays4-9

Predicted:TBR→Actual TBRCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 10h before game time