WSN vs MIA

SP Sandy Alcantara vs Cade Cavalli

Marlins 72%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (9pp). Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.5pp).

Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp). Nationals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Nationals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Marlins has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Marlins has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Marlins has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Marlins ahead by 45pp.

Factor BalanceMarlins favoredFactors 1:0(SP FIP)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Marlins 4.00vsNationals 4.75

Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (9pp).

Marlins edge · contribution -9pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Marlins 4.19vsNationals 4.49

Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp).

Marlins edge · contribution -0.9pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Marlins 4.00vsNationals 4.75

Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.5pp).

Marlins edge · contribution -7.5pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Marlins 0.320vsNationals 0.330

Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).

Nationals edge · contribution +0.5pp

WAR

weight 8%

Marlins 17.2vsNationals 19.9

Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.2pp).

Nationals edge · contribution +0.2pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Marlins 50.0%vsNationals 30.0%

Marlins has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).

Marlins edge · contribution -10pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Marlins 100%vsNationals 0%

Marlins has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Marlins edge · contribution -1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Marlins 0.308vsNationals 0.328

Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).

Nationals edge · contribution +0.5pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Marlins 6.6%vsNationals 9.0%

Nationals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Nationals edge · contribution +0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Marlins 1504vsNationals 1488

Marlins has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Marlins edge · contribution -0.4pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Nationals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Marlins @ Nationals · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Marlins vs Nationals)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-28Marlins @ Nationals2-9

Predicted:MIA→Actual WSNWrong

2026-08-23Nationals @ Marlins2-6

Predicted:MIA→Actual MIACorrect

2026-08-22Nationals @ Marlins2-4

Predicted:MIA→Actual MIACorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 10h before game time