MIA vs WSN
SP Jackson Kent vs Janson Junk
Final: WSN 2 - 6 MIA
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (8.6pp). Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.2pp).
Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp). Nationals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Marlins has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Marlins has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Marlins has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Marlins has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Nationals has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Marlins ahead by 70pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (8.6pp).
Marlins edge · contribution +8.6pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp).
Marlins edge · contribution +0.9pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.2pp).
Marlins edge · contribution +7.2pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Marlins win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Nationals @ Marlins · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative