SP FIP
weight 12%Nationals 4.72vsMarlins 4.00
Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (8.6pp).
Marlins edge · contribution +8.6pp
MIA vs WSN
MIA 85%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (8.6pp). Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.2pp).
Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp). Nationals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Marlins has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Marlins has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Marlins has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Marlins has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Nationals has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Marlins ahead by 70pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Nationals 4.47vsMarlins 4.17
Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp).
Marlins edge · contribution +0.9pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Nationals 4.72vsMarlins 4.00
Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.2pp).
Marlins edge · contribution +7.2pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Nationals 0.331vsMarlins 0.321
Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Nationals edge · contribution -0.5pp
WAR
weight 8%Nationals 20.5vsMarlins 16.1
Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.4pp).
Nationals edge · contribution -0.4pp
Recent Form
weight 10%Nationals 20.0%vsMarlins 50.0%
Marlins has the edge in Recent Form (15pp).
Marlins edge · contribution +15pp
Head-to-Head
weight 3%Nationals 0%vsMarlins 100%
Marlins has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).
Marlins edge · contribution +1.5pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Nationals 0.329vsMarlins 0.308
Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).
Nationals edge · contribution -0.5pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Nationals 9.1%vsMarlins 6.6%
Nationals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Nationals edge · contribution -0.1pp
Elo
weight 10%Nationals 1488vsMarlins 1504
Marlins has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).
Marlins edge · contribution +0.4pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Marlins win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Nationals @ Marlins · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Nationals vs Marlins)
Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result