SP FIP
weight 12%Nationals 4.77vsMarlins 4.00
Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (9.2pp).
Marlins edge · contribution +9.2pp
MIA vs WSN
MIA 72%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (9.2pp). Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp). Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.7pp).
Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp). Nationals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Marlins has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Nationals has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Marlins ahead by 44pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Nationals 4.49vsMarlins 4.16
Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp).
Marlins edge · contribution +1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Nationals 4.77vsMarlins 4.00
Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.7pp).
Marlins edge · contribution +7.7pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Nationals 0.333vsMarlins 0.322
Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).
Nationals edge · contribution -0.6pp
WAR
weight 8%Nationals 20.6vsMarlins 16.3
Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.3pp).
Nationals edge · contribution -0.3pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Nationals 0.329vsMarlins 0.308
Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).
Nationals edge · contribution -0.5pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Nationals 9.1%vsMarlins 6.6%
Nationals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Nationals edge · contribution -0.1pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Marlins win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Nationals @ Marlins · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Nationals vs Marlins)
Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result