MIA vs WSN

MIA 72%

Final: WSN 2 - 3 MIA

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (9.2pp). Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp). Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.7pp).

Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp). Nationals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Marlins has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Nationals has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Marlins ahead by 44pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Nationals 4.77vsMarlins 4.00

Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (9.2pp).

Marlins edge · contribution +9.2pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Nationals 4.49vsMarlins 4.16

Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp).

Marlins edge · contribution +1pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Nationals 4.77vsMarlins 4.00

Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.7pp).

Marlins edge · contribution +7.7pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Nationals 0.333vsMarlins 0.322

Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).

Nationals edge · contribution -0.6pp

WAR

weight 8%

Nationals 20.6vsMarlins 16.3

Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.3pp).

Nationals edge · contribution -0.3pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Nationals 0.329vsMarlins 0.308

Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).

Nationals edge · contribution -0.5pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Nationals 9.1%vsMarlins 6.6%

Nationals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Nationals edge · contribution -0.1pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Marlins win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Nationals @ Marlins · final [15%, 85%] clamp