WSN vs MIA
SP Eury Pérez vs Jackson Kent
Final: MIA 2 - 9 WSN
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (9.1pp). Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp). Nationals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Nationals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Marlins has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Marlins has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Marlins has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Marlins ahead by 45pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (9.1pp).
Marlins edge · contribution -9.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp).
Marlins edge · contribution -0.9pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.6pp).
Marlins edge · contribution -7.6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Nationals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Marlins @ Nationals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time