MIA vs BOS

SP Sonny Gray vs Ryan Gusto

Red Sox 65%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.7pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.1pp).

Batting & Roster — Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Red Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Marlins has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Red Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Red Sox has the edge in Elo (0.7pp). Red Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Red Sox ahead by 30pp.

Factor BalanceRed Sox favoredFactors 1:0(PF)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Red Sox 3.67vsMarlins 3.98

Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.7pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -3.7pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Red Sox 3.81vsMarlins 4.19

Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -1.1pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Red Sox 3.67vsMarlins 3.98

Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.1pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -3.1pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Red Sox 0.322vsMarlins 0.321

Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -0.1pp

WAR

weight 8%

Red Sox 19.0vsMarlins 16.8

Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.2pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -0.2pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Red Sox 70.0%vsMarlins 50.0%

Red Sox has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -10pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Red Sox 100%vsMarlins 0%

Red Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Red Sox 0.312vsMarlins 0.308

Red Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Red Sox 7.3%vsMarlins 6.6%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Red Sox 1532vsMarlins 1504

Red Sox has the edge in Elo (0.7pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -0.7pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Marlins win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Red Sox @ Marlins · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Red Sox vs Marlins)

Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-25Red Sox @ Marlins7-3

Predicted:BOS→Actual BOSCorrect

2026-08-24Red Sox @ Marlins4-2

Predicted:BOS→Actual BOSCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time