MIA vs BOS
SP Sonny Gray vs Ryan Gusto
Final: BOS 0 - 4 MIA
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.7pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Red Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Marlins has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Red Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Red Sox has the edge in Elo (0.7pp). Red Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Red Sox ahead by 30pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.7pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -3.7pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -1.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.1pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -3.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Marlins win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Red Sox @ Marlins · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time