MIA vs BOS

SP Payton Tolle vs TBD

Red Sox 64%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.7pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.1pp).

Batting & Roster — Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Marlins has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Red Sox has the edge in Elo (0.7pp). Red Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Red Sox ahead by 27pp.

Factor BalanceRed Sox favoredFactors 1:0(PF)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Red Sox 3.67vsMarlins 3.98

Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.7pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -3.7pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Red Sox 3.80vsMarlins 4.18

Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -1.1pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Red Sox 3.67vsMarlins 3.98

Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.1pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -3.1pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Red Sox 0.322vsMarlins 0.321

Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -0.1pp

WAR

weight 8%

Red Sox 17.9vsMarlins 16.4

Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.1pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -0.1pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Red Sox 70.0%vsMarlins 50.0%

Red Sox has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -10pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Red Sox 0.311vsMarlins 0.308

Red Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Red Sox 7.3%vsMarlins 6.6%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Red Sox 1532vsMarlins 1504

Red Sox has the edge in Elo (0.7pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -0.7pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Marlins win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Red Sox @ Marlins · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Red Sox vs Marlins)

Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-24Red Sox @ Marlins4-2

Predicted:BOS→Actual BOSCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time