MIA vs BOS

SP Ranger Suarez vs Sandy Alcantara

Red Sox 59%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.8pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.2pp).

Batting & Roster — Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Marlins has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Red Sox has the edge in Elo (0.7pp). Red Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Red Sox ahead by 17pp.

Factor BalanceRed Sox favoredFactors 1:0(PF)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Red Sox 3.66vsMarlins 3.98

Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.8pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -3.8pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Red Sox 3.80vsMarlins 4.17

Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -1.1pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Red Sox 3.66vsMarlins 3.98

Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.2pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -3.2pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Red Sox 0.321vsMarlins 0.321

Negligible gap in Lineup wOBA.

Even

WAR

weight 8%

Red Sox 17.6vsMarlins 16.3

Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.1pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -0.1pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Red Sox 60.0%vsMarlins 50.0%

Red Sox has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Red Sox 0.311vsMarlins 0.308

Red Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Red Sox 7.3%vsMarlins 6.6%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Red Sox 1532vsMarlins 1504

Red Sox has the edge in Elo (0.7pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -0.7pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Marlins win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Red Sox @ Marlins · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time