SP FIP
weight 12%Padres 4.15vsMets 4.00
Mets has the edge in SP FIP (1.8pp).
Mets edge · contribution +1.8pp
NYM vs SDP
NYM 59%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mets has the edge in SP FIP (1.8pp). Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp). Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Padres has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Padres has the edge in WAR (0.4pp).
Situational — Mets has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Padres has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Mets ahead by 18pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Padres 4.24vsMets 4.05
Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp).
Mets edge · contribution +0.6pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Padres 4.15vsMets 4.00
Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.5pp).
Mets edge · contribution +1.5pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Padres 0.310vsMets 0.306
Padres has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Padres edge · contribution -0.2pp
WAR
weight 8%Padres 14.9vsMets 10.3
Padres has the edge in WAR (0.4pp).
Padres edge · contribution -0.4pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Padres 0.318vsMets 0.319
Negligible gap in Lineup xwOBA.
Even
Barrel%
weight 3%Padres 8.2%vsMets 8.6%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mets win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Padres @ Mets · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Padres vs Mets)
Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result