NYM vs SDP

NYM 60%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Mets has the edge in SP FIP (2.2pp). Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp). Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.8pp).

Batting & Roster — Padres has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Padres has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Mets has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Mets has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Padres has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Mets ahead by 19pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Padres 4.17vsMets 3.99

Mets has the edge in SP FIP (2.2pp).

Mets edge · contribution +2.2pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Padres 4.24vsMets 4.03

Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp).

Mets edge · contribution +0.6pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Padres 4.17vsMets 3.99

Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.8pp).

Mets edge · contribution +1.8pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Padres 0.310vsMets 0.307

Padres has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).

Padres edge · contribution -0.2pp

WAR

weight 8%

Padres 14.7vsMets 10.6

Padres has the edge in WAR (0.3pp).

Padres edge · contribution -0.3pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Padres 0.318vsMets 0.320

Mets has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Mets edge · contribution +0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Padres 8.2%vsMets 8.7%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mets win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Padres @ Mets · final [15%, 85%] clamp