NYM vs SDP

NYM 60%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Mets has the edge in SP FIP (2.2pp). Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp). Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.8pp).

Batting & Roster — Padres has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Padres has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Mets has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Mets has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Padres has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Mets ahead by 19pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP: 4 / 4.18
SP xFIP: 4.03 / 4.24
Bullpen FIP: 4 / 4.18
Lineup wOBA: 0.307 / 0.309
WAR: 10.27 / 14.24
Lineup xwOBA: 0.32 / 0.317
Barrel%: 8.7 / 8.3

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mets win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Padres @ Mets · final [15%, 85%] clamp