NYY vs BOS
SP Ranger Suarez vs Gerrit Cole
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (0.7pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp). Yankees has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Yankees has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Red Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.9pp). Red Sox has the edge in Elo (0.7pp). Yankees has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Red Sox ahead by 13pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (0.7pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -0.7pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +0.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.6pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -0.6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Negligible gap in Lineup wOBA.
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Yankees win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Red Sox @ Yankees · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 14h before game time