NYY vs BOS

SP Ranger Suarez vs Will Warren

Yankees 54%

Final: BOS 1 - 16 NYY

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (0.2pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.2pp).

Batting & Roster — Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp). Yankees has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Yankees has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.9pp). Red Sox has the edge in Elo (0.7pp). Yankees has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Yankees ahead by 7pp.

Factor BalanceEvenFactors 0:0

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Red Sox 3.65vsYankees 3.67

Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (0.2pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -0.2pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Red Sox 3.79vsYankees 3.76

Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp).

Yankees edge · contribution +0.1pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Red Sox 3.65vsYankees 3.67

Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.2pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -0.2pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Red Sox 0.320vsYankees 0.314

Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -0.3pp

WAR

weight 8%

Red Sox 18.9vsYankees 17.6

Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.1pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -0.1pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Red Sox 70.0%vsYankees 70.0%

Negligible gap in Recent Form.

Even

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Red Sox 80%vsYankees 20%

Red Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.9pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -0.9pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Red Sox 0.311vsYankees 0.321

Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).

Yankees edge · contribution +0.3pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Red Sox 7.3%vsYankees 9.7%

Yankees has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Yankees edge · contribution +0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Red Sox 1532vsYankees 1502

Red Sox has the edge in Elo (0.7pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution -0.7pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Yankees win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Red Sox @ Yankees · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Red Sox vs Yankees)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-29Red Sox @ Yankees2-9

Predicted:NYY→Actual NYYCorrect

2026-08-29Red Sox @ Yankees6-0

Predicted:NYY→Actual BOSWrong

2026-08-28Red Sox @ Yankees0-1

Predicted:NYY→Actual NYYCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time