NYY vs BOS
SP Jake Bennett vs Carlos Rodón
Final: BOS 6 - 0 NYY
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (0.4pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp). Yankees has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Yankees has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Red Sox has the edge in Elo (0.7pp). Yankees has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Yankees ahead by 6pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (0.4pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -0.4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +0.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.3pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -0.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Yankees win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Red Sox @ Yankees · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time