HOU vs CHW
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — White Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.4pp). White Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp). White Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.8pp).
Batting & Roster — White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Astros has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). White Sox has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Astros has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with White Sox ahead by 22pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%White Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.4pp).
White Sox edge · contribution -3.4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%White Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp).
White Sox edge · contribution -0.3pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%White Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.8pp).
White Sox edge · contribution -2.8pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Astros win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
White Sox @ Astros · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 11h before game time