HOU vs CHW
SP Luis Castillo vs Hunter Brown
Final: CHW 2 - 6 HOU
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — White Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.8pp). White Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp). White Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.2pp).
Batting & Roster — White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Astros has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). White Sox has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Astros has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.3pp). Astros has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with White Sox ahead by 23pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%White Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.8pp).
White Sox edge · contribution -3.8pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%White Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp).
White Sox edge · contribution -0.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%White Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.2pp).
White Sox edge · contribution -3.2pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Astros win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
White Sox @ Astros · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 8h before game time