HOU vs CHW

SP TBD vs Hayden Wesneski

White Sox 51%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — White Sox has the edge in SP FIP (4pp). White Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp). White Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.3pp).

Batting & Roster — White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Astros has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Astros has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.8pp). Astros has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with White Sox ahead by 3pp.

Factor BalanceEvenFactors 0:0

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

White Sox 4.28vsAstros 4.61

White Sox has the edge in SP FIP (4pp).

White Sox edge · contribution -4pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

White Sox 4.34vsAstros 4.48

White Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp).

White Sox edge · contribution -0.4pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

White Sox 4.28vsAstros 4.61

White Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.3pp).

White Sox edge · contribution -3.3pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

White Sox 0.320vsAstros 0.317

White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).

White Sox edge · contribution -0.2pp

WAR

weight 8%

White Sox 19.4vsAstros 17.4

White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.2pp).

White Sox edge · contribution -0.2pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

White Sox 60.0%vsAstros 60.0%

Negligible gap in Recent Form.

Even

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

White Sox 25%vsAstros 75%

Astros has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.8pp).

Astros edge · contribution +0.8pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

White Sox 0.318vsAstros 0.313

White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

White Sox edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

White Sox 8.4%vsAstros 7.9%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

White Sox 1499vsAstros 1516

Astros has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Astros edge · contribution +0.4pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Astros win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

White Sox @ Astros · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (White Sox vs Astros)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-31White Sox @ Astros3-6

Predicted:CHW→Actual HOUWrong

2026-07-26Astros @ White Sox3-12

Predicted:CHW→Actual CHWCorrect

2026-07-25Astros @ White Sox4-1

Predicted:CHW→Actual HOUWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 14h before game time