HOU vs CHW

SP Anthony Kay vs Peter Lambert

White Sox 61%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — White Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.7pp). White Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp). White Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.1pp).

Batting & Roster — White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Astros has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). White Sox has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Astros has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). Astros has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with White Sox ahead by 22pp.

Factor BalanceEvenFactors 0:0

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

White Sox 4.28vsAstros 4.59

White Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.7pp).

White Sox edge · contribution -3.7pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

White Sox 4.32vsAstros 4.47

White Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp).

White Sox edge · contribution -0.4pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

White Sox 4.28vsAstros 4.59

White Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.1pp).

White Sox edge · contribution -3.1pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

White Sox 0.321vsAstros 0.317

White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).

White Sox edge · contribution -0.2pp

WAR

weight 8%

White Sox 19.8vsAstros 16.9

White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.2pp).

White Sox edge · contribution -0.2pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

White Sox 70.0%vsAstros 50.0%

White Sox has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).

White Sox edge · contribution -10pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

White Sox 33%vsAstros 67%

Astros has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp).

Astros edge · contribution +0.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

White Sox 0.318vsAstros 0.313

White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

White Sox edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

White Sox 8.5%vsAstros 7.9%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

White Sox 1499vsAstros 1516

Astros has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Astros edge · contribution +0.4pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Astros win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

White Sox @ Astros · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (White Sox vs Astros)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-07-26Astros @ White Sox3-12

Predicted:CHW→Actual CHWCorrect

2026-07-25Astros @ White Sox4-1

Predicted:CHW→Actual HOUWrong

2026-07-24Astros @ White Sox9-5

Predicted:CHW→Actual HOUWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 14h before game time