HOU vs CHW
SP Hagen Smith vs AJ Blubaugh
Final: CHW 6 - 3 HOU
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — White Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.4pp). White Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp). White Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.8pp).
Batting & Roster — White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Astros has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). White Sox has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Astros has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.3pp). Astros has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with White Sox ahead by 11pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%White Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.4pp).
White Sox edge · contribution -3.4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%White Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp).
White Sox edge · contribution -0.3pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%White Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.8pp).
White Sox edge · contribution -2.8pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Astros win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
White Sox @ Astros · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 11h before game time