DET vs PIT
SP Kirby Yates vs Justin Verlander
Final: PIT 3 - 4 DET
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (2.5pp). Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp). Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Tigers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Tigers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Pirates has the edge in Recent Form (25pp). Pirates has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). Tigers has the edge in Elo (0.7pp). Pirates has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Pirates ahead by 49pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (2.5pp).
Pirates edge · contribution -2.5pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp).
Pirates edge · contribution -0.3pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.1pp).
Pirates edge · contribution -2.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Tigers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Pirates @ Tigers · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time