PIT vs DET

PIT 55%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (0.6pp). Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.5pp).

Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Tigers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Pirates has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Tigers has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Pirates ahead by 10pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Tigers 3.87vsPirates 3.92

Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (0.6pp).

Tigers edge · contribution -0.6pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Tigers 4.04vsPirates 4.03

Negligible gap in SP xFIP.

Even

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Tigers 3.87vsPirates 3.92

Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.5pp).

Tigers edge · contribution -0.5pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Tigers 0.319vsPirates 0.328

Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).

Pirates edge · contribution +0.5pp

WAR

weight 8%

Tigers 15.6vsPirates 16.1

Negligible gap in WAR.

Even

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Tigers 0.320vsPirates 0.317

Tigers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Tigers edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Tigers 8.4%vsPirates 8.0%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Pirates win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Tigers @ Pirates · final [15%, 85%] clamp