PIT vs DET
Final: DET 8 - 5 PIT
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (1.1pp). Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Tigers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Pirates has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Tigers has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Pirates ahead by 8pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (1.1pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -1.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Negligible gap in SP xFIP.
Even
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.9pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -0.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Pirates win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Tigers @ Pirates · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative