PIT vs DET
PIT 54%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (1.1pp). Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Tigers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Pirates has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Tigers has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Pirates ahead by 8pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 3.93 / 3.84
- SP xFIP
- 4.04 / 4.03
- Bullpen FIP
- 3.93 / 3.84
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.328 / 0.319
- WAR
- 15.75 / 15.59
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.316 / 0.32
- Barrel%
- 8 / 8.5
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Pirates win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Tigers @ Pirates · final [15%, 85%] clamp