SP FIP
weight 12%Tigers 3.86vsPirates 3.93
Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (0.8pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -0.8pp
PIT vs DET
PIT 54%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (0.8pp). Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.7pp).
Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Tigers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Pirates has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Tigers has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Pirates ahead by 8pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Tigers 4.03vsPirates 4.04
Negligible gap in SP xFIP.
Even
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Tigers 3.86vsPirates 3.93
Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.7pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -0.7pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Tigers 0.320vsPirates 0.328
Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +0.4pp
WAR
weight 8%Tigers 16.0vsPirates 16.0
Negligible gap in WAR.
Even
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Tigers 0.320vsPirates 0.316
Tigers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -0.1pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Tigers 8.4%vsPirates 8.0%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Pirates win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Tigers @ Pirates · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Tigers vs Pirates)
Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result