SDP vs ARI
SP Brandon Pfaadt vs Casey Mize
Final: ARI 11 - 4 SDP
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Padres has the edge in SP FIP (1.7pp). Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Padres has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.4pp).
Batting & Roster — Padres has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Padres has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Padres has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Padres has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Padres has the edge in Elo (0.1pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Padres ahead by 29pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Padres has the edge in SP FIP (1.7pp).
Padres edge · contribution +1.7pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).
Padres edge · contribution +0.7pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Padres has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.4pp).
Padres edge · contribution +1.4pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Padres has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Padres win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Diamondbacks @ Padres · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time