ARI vs SDP
Final: SDP 4 - 10 ARI
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Padres has the edge in SP FIP (1.9pp). Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Padres has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Diamondbacks has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Diamondbacks ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 4.35 / 4.19
- SP xFIP
- 4.49 / 4.26
- Bullpen FIP
- 4.35 / 4.19
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.313 / 0.309
- WAR
- 13.57 / 13.94
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.313 / 0.317
- Barrel%
- 7 / 8.2
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Diamondbacks win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Padres @ Diamondbacks · final [15%, 85%] clamp