SDP vs ARI
Final: ARI 3 - 1 SDP
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Padres has the edge in SP FIP (1.9pp). Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Padres has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Padres has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Padres ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Padres has the edge in SP FIP (1.9pp).
Padres edge · contribution +1.9pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).
Padres edge · contribution +0.7pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Padres has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.6pp).
Padres edge · contribution +1.6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Padres win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Diamondbacks @ Padres · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative