PIT vs STL
SP Kyle Leahy vs Paul Skenes
Final: STL 1 - 2 PIT
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (3.4pp). Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp). Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.8pp).
Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp). Pirates has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Pirates has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Pirates has the edge in Recent Form (20pp). Cardinals has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Pirates ahead by 67pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (3.4pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +3.4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +0.6pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.8pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +2.8pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Pirates win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Cardinals @ Pirates · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 6h before game time