PIT vs STL
SP Andre Pallante vs Jared Jones
Final: STL 0 - 2 PIT
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (3.1pp). Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp). Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp). Pirates has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Pirates has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Pirates has the edge in Recent Form (20pp). Cardinals has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Pirates ahead by 65pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (3.1pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +3.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +0.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.6pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +2.6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Pirates win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Cardinals @ Pirates · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time