STL vs PIT
SP Braxton Ashcraft vs Matthew Liberatore
Final: PIT 5 - 4 STL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (2.3pp). Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp). Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Pirates has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Cardinals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Cardinals has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Pirates has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Cardinals ahead by 3pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (2.3pp).
Pirates edge · contribution -2.3pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp).
Pirates edge · contribution -0.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.9pp).
Pirates edge · contribution -1.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cardinals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Pirates @ Cardinals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 8h before game time