STL vs PIT

SP Braxton Ashcraft vs Matthew Liberatore

Cardinals 52%

Final: PIT 5 - 4 STL

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (2.3pp). Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp). Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.9pp).

Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Pirates has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Situational — Cardinals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Cardinals has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Pirates has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Cardinals ahead by 3pp.

Factor BalanceEvenFactors 0:0

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Pirates 3.87vsCardinals 4.06

Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (2.3pp).

Pirates edge · contribution -2.3pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Pirates 4.02vsCardinals 4.18

Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp).

Pirates edge · contribution -0.5pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Pirates 3.87vsCardinals 4.06

Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.9pp).

Pirates edge · contribution -1.9pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Pirates 0.324vsCardinals 0.309

Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).

Pirates edge · contribution -0.8pp

WAR

weight 8%

Pirates 15.2vsCardinals 14.2

Pirates has the edge in WAR (0.1pp).

Pirates edge · contribution -0.1pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Pirates 40.0%vsCardinals 40.0%

Negligible gap in Recent Form.

Even

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Pirates 0%vsCardinals 100%

Cardinals has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Cardinals edge · contribution +1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Pirates 0.314vsCardinals 0.322

Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Cardinals edge · contribution +0.2pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Pirates 7.9%vsCardinals 7.6%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Pirates 1489vsCardinals 1489

Negligible gap in Elo.

Even

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cardinals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Pirates @ Cardinals · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Pirates vs Cardinals)

Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-29Pirates @ Cardinals6-2

Predicted:PIT→Actual PITCorrect

2026-08-28Pirates @ Cardinals1-4

Predicted:PIT→Actual STLWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 8h before game time