CIN vs CHC
SP David Peterson vs Rhett Lowder
Final: CHC 9 - 1 CIN
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Cubs has the edge in SP FIP (1.7pp). Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp). Cubs has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.4pp).
Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.4pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (2.1pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Reds has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.9pp). Reds has the edge in Park Factor (0.4pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Cubs ahead by 6pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Cubs has the edge in SP FIP (1.7pp).
Cubs edge · contribution -1.7pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp).
Cubs edge · contribution -1.4pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Cubs has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.4pp).
Cubs edge · contribution -1.4pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.4pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Reds win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Cubs @ Reds · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time