CIN vs CHC
SP Clay Holmes vs Chase Burns
Final: CHC 4 - 6 CIN
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Cubs has the edge in SP FIP (1.3pp). Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp). Cubs has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.4pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (2pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp). Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Reds has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Cubs has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Cubs has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.3pp). Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.9pp). Reds has the edge in Park Factor (0.4pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Cubs ahead by 15pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Cubs has the edge in SP FIP (1.3pp).
Cubs edge · contribution -1.3pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp).
Cubs edge · contribution -1.4pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Cubs has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.1pp).
Cubs edge · contribution -1.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.4pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Reds win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Cubs @ Reds · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time