CHC vs CIN
SP Chase Burns vs Shota Imanaga
Final: CIN 7 - 5 CHC
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Reds has the edge in SP FIP (0.2pp). Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp). Reds has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.2pp).
Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.3pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.8pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp). Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Cubs has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.9pp). Cubs has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Cubs ahead by 21pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Reds has the edge in SP FIP (0.2pp).
Reds edge · contribution -0.2pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp).
Cubs edge · contribution +1.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Reds has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.2pp).
Reds edge · contribution -0.2pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cubs win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Reds @ Cubs · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time