CHC vs CIN

SP Chase Burns vs Shota Imanaga

Cubs 60%

Final: CIN 7 - 5 CHC

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Reds has the edge in SP FIP (0.2pp). Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp). Reds has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.2pp).

Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.3pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.8pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp). Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Cubs has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.9pp). Cubs has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Cubs ahead by 21pp.

Factor BalanceCubs favoredFactors 2:0(Lineup wOBA·Team WAR)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Reds 4.66vsCubs 4.68

Reds has the edge in SP FIP (0.2pp).

Reds edge · contribution -0.2pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Reds 4.63vsCubs 4.23

Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +1.2pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Reds 4.66vsCubs 4.68

Reds has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.2pp).

Reds edge · contribution -0.2pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Reds 0.309vsCubs 0.334

Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.3pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +1.3pp

WAR

weight 8%

Reds 8.9vsCubs 31.2

Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.8pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +1.8pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Reds 40.0%vsCubs 40.0%

Negligible gap in Recent Form.

Even

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Reds 50%vsCubs 50%

Negligible gap in Head-to-Head.

Even

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Reds 0.316vsCubs 0.321

Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Reds 9.1%vsCubs 7.4%

Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Reds edge · contribution -0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Reds 1498vsCubs 1533

Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.9pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +0.9pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cubs win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Reds @ Cubs · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Reds vs Cubs)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-29Reds @ Cubs5-17

Predicted:CHC→Actual CHCCorrect

2026-08-28Reds @ Cubs10-8

Predicted:CHC→Actual CINWrong

2026-07-12Cubs @ Reds8-4

Predicted:CIN→Actual CHCWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time