CHC vs CIN
SP Andrew Abbott vs Kevin Gausman
Final: CIN 5 - 17 CHC
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp).
Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.3pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.8pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp). Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Cubs has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Cubs has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.9pp). Cubs has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Cubs ahead by 23pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Negligible gap in SP FIP.
Even
SP xFIP
weight 3%Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp).
Cubs edge · contribution +1.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Negligible gap in Bullpen FIP.
Even
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.3pp).
Cubs edge
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cubs win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Reds @ Cubs · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 8h before game time