CHC vs CIN

SP Andrew Abbott vs Kevin Gausman

Cubs 61%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp).

Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.3pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.8pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp). Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Cubs has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Cubs has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.9pp). Cubs has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Cubs ahead by 23pp.

Factor BalanceCubs favoredFactors 2:0(Lineup wOBA·Team WAR)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Reds 4.66vsCubs 4.66

Negligible gap in SP FIP.

Even

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Reds 4.63vsCubs 4.23

Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +1.2pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Reds 4.66vsCubs 4.66

Negligible gap in Bullpen FIP.

Even

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Reds 0.308vsCubs 0.334

Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.3pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +1.3pp

WAR

weight 8%

Reds 8.3vsCubs 30.9

Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.8pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +1.8pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Reds 40.0%vsCubs 40.0%

Negligible gap in Recent Form.

Even

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Reds 33%vsCubs 67%

Cubs has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +0.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Reds 0.316vsCubs 0.321

Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Reds 9.1%vsCubs 7.3%

Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Reds edge · contribution -0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Reds 1498vsCubs 1533

Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.9pp).

Cubs edge · contribution +0.9pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cubs win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Reds @ Cubs · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Reds vs Cubs)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-28Reds @ Cubs10-8

Predicted:CHC→Actual CINWrong

2026-07-12Cubs @ Reds8-4

Predicted:CIN→Actual CHCWrong

2026-07-11Cubs @ Reds5-3

Predicted:CIN→Actual CHCWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 8h before game time