BAL vs BOS
SP Jake Bennett vs Brandon Young
Final: BOS 6 - 5 BAL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (4.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.4pp).
Batting & Roster — Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Orioles has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Orioles has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Red Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). Red Sox has the edge in Elo (0.7pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Orioles ahead by 1pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (4.1pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -4.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -1.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.4pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -3.4pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Orioles win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Red Sox @ Orioles · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time