BOS vs BAL
Final: BAL 5 - 6 BOS
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (4.9pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).
Situational — Red Sox has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Red Sox ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (4.9pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +4.9pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +1.4pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.1pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +4.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Red Sox win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Orioles @ Red Sox · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative