TEX vs ATH

SP Jacob Lopez vs Cody Bradford

Rangers 83%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Rangers has the edge in SP FIP (10.2pp). Rangers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.6pp). Rangers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.5pp).

Batting & Roster — Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Rangers has the edge in WAR (0.7pp). Athletics has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Rangers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rangers has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Rangers has the edge in Elo (1.1pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Rangers ahead by 65pp.

Factor BalanceRangers favoredFactors 3:0(SP FIP·SP xFIP·Team WAR)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Athletics 4.92vsRangers 4.07

Rangers has the edge in SP FIP (10.2pp).

Rangers edge · contribution +10.2pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Athletics 4.56vsRangers 4.04

Rangers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.6pp).

Rangers edge · contribution +1.6pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Athletics 4.92vsRangers 4.07

Rangers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.5pp).

Rangers edge · contribution +8.5pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Athletics 0.316vsRangers 0.315

Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).

Athletics edge · contribution -0.1pp

WAR

weight 8%

Athletics 8.7vsRangers 17.8

Rangers has the edge in WAR (0.7pp).

Rangers edge · contribution +0.7pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Athletics 40.0%vsRangers 50.0%

Rangers has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).

Rangers edge · contribution +5pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Athletics 50%vsRangers 50%

Negligible gap in Head-to-Head.

Even

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Athletics 0.310vsRangers 0.308

Athletics has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Athletics edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Athletics 7.5%vsRangers 7.5%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Athletics 1456vsRangers 1498

Rangers has the edge in Elo (1.1pp).

Rangers edge · contribution +1.1pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rangers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Athletics @ Rangers · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Athletics vs Rangers)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-31Athletics @ Rangers1-8

Predicted:TEX→Actual TEXCorrect

2026-08-16Rangers @ Athletics2-5

Predicted:TEX→Actual ATHWrong

2026-08-15Rangers @ Athletics5-3

Predicted:TEX→Actual TEXCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 8h before game time