TEX vs ATH
SP Gage Jump vs Jacob deGrom
Final: ATH 1 - 8 TEX
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Rangers has the edge in SP FIP (9.7pp). Rangers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp). Rangers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Rangers has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Athletics has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Rangers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Athletics has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). Rangers has the edge in Elo (1.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Rangers ahead by 52pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Rangers has the edge in SP FIP (9.7pp).
Rangers edge · contribution +9.7pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Rangers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp).
Rangers edge · contribution +1.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Rangers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.1pp).
Rangers edge · contribution +8.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rangers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Athletics @ Rangers · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 14h before game time