TEX vs ATH

SP J.T. Ginn vs MacKenzie Gore

Rangers 81%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Rangers has the edge in SP FIP (9.7pp). Rangers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp). Rangers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.1pp).

Batting & Roster — Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Rangers has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Athletics has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Rangers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rangers has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Athletics has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). Rangers has the edge in Elo (1.1pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Rangers ahead by 62pp.

Factor BalanceRangers favoredFactors 2:0(SP FIP·Team WAR)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Athletics 4.91vsRangers 4.10

Rangers has the edge in SP FIP (9.7pp).

Rangers edge · contribution +9.7pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Athletics 4.55vsRangers 4.06

Rangers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp).

Rangers edge · contribution +1.5pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Athletics 4.91vsRangers 4.10

Rangers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.1pp).

Rangers edge · contribution +8.1pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Athletics 0.317vsRangers 0.315

Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).

Athletics edge · contribution -0.1pp

WAR

weight 8%

Athletics 9.3vsRangers 17.4

Rangers has the edge in WAR (0.6pp).

Rangers edge · contribution +0.6pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Athletics 40.0%vsRangers 50.0%

Rangers has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).

Rangers edge · contribution +5pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Athletics 67%vsRangers 33%

Athletics has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp).

Athletics edge · contribution -0.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Athletics 0.311vsRangers 0.307

Athletics has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Athletics edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Athletics 7.6%vsRangers 7.4%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Athletics 1456vsRangers 1498

Rangers has the edge in Elo (1.1pp).

Rangers edge · contribution +1.1pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rangers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Athletics @ Rangers · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Athletics vs Rangers)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-16Rangers @ Athletics2-5

Predicted:TEX→Actual ATHWrong

2026-08-15Rangers @ Athletics5-3

Predicted:TEX→Actual TEXCorrect

2026-08-14Rangers @ Athletics3-8

Predicted:TEX→Actual ATHWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 14h before game time