TBR vs NYM

SP Justin Hagenman vs TBD

Rays 67%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Rays has the edge in SP FIP (0.2pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp). Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.2pp).

Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.7pp). Mets has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp). Mets has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Rays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rays has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Mets has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Rays has the edge in Elo (1pp). Mets has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Rays ahead by 34pp.

Factor BalanceEvenFactors 1:1

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Mets 4.04vsRays 4.02

Rays has the edge in SP FIP (0.2pp).

Rays edge · contribution +0.2pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Mets 4.07vsRays 3.94

Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp).

Rays edge · contribution +0.4pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Mets 4.04vsRays 4.02

Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.2pp).

Rays edge · contribution +0.2pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Mets 0.306vsRays 0.322

Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).

Rays edge · contribution +0.8pp

WAR

weight 8%

Mets 10.7vsRays 19.9

Rays has the edge in WAR (0.7pp).

Rays edge · contribution +0.7pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Mets 40.0%vsRays 60.0%

Rays has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).

Rays edge · contribution +10pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Mets 100%vsRays 0%

Mets has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Mets edge · contribution -1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Mets 0.317vsRays 0.306

Mets has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).

Mets edge · contribution -0.3pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Mets 8.5%vsRays 5.7%

Mets has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Mets edge · contribution -0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Mets 1487vsRays 1525

Rays has the edge in Elo (1pp).

Rays edge · contribution +1pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Mets @ Rays · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Mets vs Rays)

Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-31Mets @ Rays3-2

Predicted:TBR→Actual NYMWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time