TBR vs NYM
SP Sean Manaea vs Freddy Peralta
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Rays has the edge in SP FIP (0.1pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp). Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.7pp). Mets has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp). Mets has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Rays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rays has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Rays has the edge in Elo (1pp). Mets has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Rays ahead by 36pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Rays has the edge in SP FIP (0.1pp).
Rays edge · contribution +0.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp).
Rays edge · contribution +0.3pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.1pp).
Rays edge · contribution +0.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).
Rays edge · contribution +0.8pp
WAR
weight 8%Rays has the edge in WAR (0.7pp).
Rays edge · contribution +0.7pp
Recent Form
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).
Rays edge · contribution +10pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Mets has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Mets edge · contribution -0.3pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Mets has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Mets edge · contribution -0.1pp
Elo
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Elo (1pp).
Rays edge · contribution +1pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Mets @ Rays · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time