COL vs BAL

SP Trevor Rogers vs Tomoyuki Sugano

Orioles 85%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (9.1pp). Orioles has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp). Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.6pp).

Batting & Roster — Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Orioles has the edge in WAR (0.9pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp). Orioles has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Rockies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Orioles has the edge in Recent Form (30pp). Orioles has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Orioles has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Rockies has the edge in Park Factor (0.6pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Orioles ahead by 70pp.

Factor BalanceOrioles favoredFactors 3:1(SP FIP·SP xFIP·Team WAR)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Orioles 4.05vsRockies 4.81

Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (9.1pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -9.1pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Orioles 4.23vsRockies 4.74

Orioles has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -1.5pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Orioles 4.05vsRockies 4.81

Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.6pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -7.6pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Orioles 0.315vsRockies 0.323

Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).

Rockies edge · contribution +0.4pp

WAR

weight 8%

Orioles 18.4vsRockies 7.4

Orioles has the edge in WAR (0.9pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -0.9pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Orioles 80.0%vsRockies 20.0%

Orioles has the edge in Recent Form (30pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -30pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Orioles 100%vsRockies 0%

Orioles has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Orioles 0.324vsRockies 0.309

Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -0.4pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Orioles 8.7%vsRockies 6.5%

Orioles has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Orioles 1503vsRockies 1488

Orioles has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -0.4pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rockies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Orioles @ Rockies · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Orioles vs Rockies)

Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-31Orioles @ Rockies2-1

Predicted:BAL→Actual BALCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 9h before game time